Cornerstone First Mortgage
Company NMLS #173855
Phone: 216-777-4330
2026 State of the Union Update
What the State of the Union Means for Mortgage Rates and Real Estate
Housing was a major topic in this year’s State of the Union. Most people did not sit through the full speech, and that is fine. What matters is understanding what was actually discussed and how it connects to real decisions here at home.
The conversation centered around five areas: mortgage rates, affordability, housing supply, institutional investors, and rent. Let’s break each of them down clearly and talk about what they mean in real life, especially here in Northeast Ohio.
Mortgage Rates
The speech highlighted that mortgage rates are lower than they were a year ago. That is accurate. The average 30 year fixed rate has moved from the high six percent range last year to just over six percent recently.
That shift matters. Even a half percent change affects monthly payments and qualification. But we are not back in the ultra low rate environment of 2020 and 2021.
Rates are influenced primarily by inflation and bond markets. Political speeches can signal priorities, but they do not directly set mortgage pricing.
What this means for buyers and homeowners is simple. Preparation matters more than prediction. If you are buying, you need to understand your payment at today’s rate and how it changes if rates move slightly up or down. If you are refinancing, you need to understand your break even point and long term strategy, not just chase a headline number.
Affordability and Home Prices
Affordability was framed as a national priority. The reality is more nuanced.
Nationally, home prices are still slightly higher than they were a year ago. Growth has slowed significantly compared to the pandemic years, but prices have not collapsed. Sales activity has cooled, yet the market is still functioning.
We are in a normalization phase.
Affordability improves when rates fall, incomes rise, or supply increases. Right now, supply remains the limiting factor.
For buyers, this means waiting for a dramatic national price drop may not be realistic. The opportunity is in negotiation, structure, and smart offer strategy. For sellers, pricing discipline matters. Overpricing in this environment leads to longer days on market. Correct pricing still leads to movement.
Housing Supply
One of the biggest underlying issues discussed was supply.
Inventory remains below what economists consider a balanced market. Many homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below four percent. That makes them hesitant to sell and take on a higher rate, which keeps resale inventory tight.
This is why prices have held steadier than many expected. Limited supply prevents significant downward pressure.
In Northeast Ohio, this dynamic is very visible. Well priced homes in desirable areas continue to move. Properties that stretch beyond market value sit longer and require adjustments.
Supply, more than headlines, is what supports current pricing.
Institutional Investors and the Local Picture
There was renewed attention on limiting large institutional investors from purchasing single family homes.
Nationally, investor activity varies by market and by definition. Some regions have seen strong institutional presence. Others have not.
Here in Northeast Ohio, the picture is different from many high growth Sunbelt markets. We see investor participation, but it is typically local or regional. Small landlords, rehabbers, and portfolio owners are more common than large hedge funds dominating neighborhoods.
In certain Cleveland neighborhoods and select areas, investor competition is noticeable. In many suburbs, owner occupants remain the primary driver of demand. That distinction matters. National rhetoric does not always translate to local impact.
If you are a buyer competing with investors, strategy and financing strength matter. If you are an investor, underwriting discipline matters more than ever.
Rent and Inflation
The speech suggested affordability improvements for renters as well. The broader data shows that shelter costs are still up year over year, although growth has slowed. Rent has not meaningfully reset to pre 2021 levels.
In Northeast Ohio, rents remain more affordable than many major metro areas, but they have increased over the past several years. In some price ranges, the gap between renting and owning has narrowed.
The rent versus own conversation cannot be based on emotion. It needs to include time horizon, stability, tax implications, maintenance expectations, and long term wealth goals.
For some households, renting makes sense. For others, ownership provides stability and equity growth that renting does not.
Where the Market Actually Stands
Rates are lower than last year but still historically moderate.
Home prices are stable to slightly rising.
Inventory remains tight.
Sales are slower but steady.
Rent costs remain elevated compared to pre pandemic levels.
This is not a chaotic market. It is a disciplined one.
Disciplined markets reward informed decisions.
How We Help
At Conrad Mortgage, our role is not to react to political cycles. It is to help you understand your options clearly.
For buyers, we run full payment scenarios, including taxes and insurance, and structure offers strategically.
For homeowners, we analyze refinance break even timelines and long term risk reduction strategies.
For investors, we underwrite conservatively and model realistic rent and debt service assumptions.
For anyone unsure whether to rent or buy, we walk through the math based on your timeline and goals.
Our focus is simple. Give you clarity. Give you numbers. Give you a plan.
If you are in Northeast Ohio and want to understand how today’s market conditions affect your next move, we are here to walk through it with you.
Knowledge builds confidence. And confident decisions build long term stability.
Founder, Co-Branch Manager, & Serial Entrepreneur
02/26/2026